Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.530250 2.011569 2.660037 3.620098 5.045440 7.151867 10.639080
2025-01-12 0.947427 1.400563 2.112727 3.377142 5.718090 10.228791 20.697561
2025-01-19 0.617257 0.995435 1.664034 3.039699 6.127380 13.791188 39.433771
2025-01-26 0.454783 0.794193 1.464442 3.060507 7.454988 22.108778 102.675634
2025-02-02 0.364941 0.688211 1.400600 3.377280 10.229446 43.412441 442.462250
2025-02-09 0.304889 0.618092 1.385542 3.875127 15.020911 102.155548 4562.654457
2025-02-16 0.247342 0.530870 1.287841 4.092782 20.007220 230.395880 230285.266260
2025-02-23 0.195517 0.437583 1.126725 3.959746 23.576778 462.328151 NaN
2025-03-02 0.154604 0.357417 0.964711 3.681079 26.030155 884.288147 NaN
2025-03-09 0.132543 0.319572 0.918129 3.922164 35.745452 3371.663082 NaN
2025-03-16 0.114234 0.285781 0.868410 4.122578 48.635067 19942.138867 NaN
2025-03-23 0.100553 0.260861 0.838676 4.445401 70.427966 552521.260428 NaN
2025-03-30 0.088006 0.236613 0.805073 4.788374 106.649172 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.074123 0.203543 0.716585 4.578547 128.520509 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.062015 0.172791 0.622943 4.188224 140.044686 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054674 0.156101 0.585912 4.303716 199.667075 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050193 0.147989 0.586315 4.870223 377.895336 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.046879 0.143038 0.601020 5.741267 891.101389 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.042640 0.133210 0.583319 6.171208 1756.054626 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.037815 0.119676 0.536174 6.011527 2538.462051 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.033276 0.106110 0.481848 5.593377 3055.790318 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.030787 0.100212 0.472182 6.040753 7565.185914 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.028455 0.094307 0.459170 6.420681 20876.726555 NaN NaN